Exact numbers for mutation possibility have never been made public, so it's hard to say, but certainly very low. Even with VLF lionesses with fertility as low as hers, I'd guess - though it really is only a guess - it's still probably less than a 1% chance of getting a mutated cub without using any items.

'Natural' muties (those born without using any mutation items such as GMOs, CRBs etc) are pretty rare. Lower fertilities do increase the chance but it seems to be only a slight increase, to be honest. Certainly the mother having a very low fertility % makes much less difference to your chances than for example using a CRB, which has been estimated to have a roughly 15% chance of a mutated cub.

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