Wow, didn't expect to learn math today but here we are :D This is really helpful, thanks

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bookmarked!! super helpful post

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Bookmarked! Thanks!

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I'm glad you did those calculations, although its interesting that theyre all pretty close to just saying 5% + 5% + 5% .

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So just out of curiosity since I actually saw this happen today, what's the probability of getting four tigons in a litter of four cubs from a first gen mama?

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Wait, you saw a 4 Tigon litter? :0 thats insane.

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Four tigons, god that's nuts. The probability of a first gen producing four tigons would be .01%. But if the odds of getting a litter of four in the first place was also calculated (which is currently not known), the resulting probability would be even lower.

I could use some luck like that smh

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Ah, I was mistaken. The person had two sets of twins in a row, not one litter of four. BUT STILL!!!! Insane luck!!

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Oh I have a thread very similar to this one xD

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This makes my nerdy heart happy!

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Guys, I dont think they say a litter with 4 tigon Cubs. I'm assuming the more cubs, the higher chance for ONE of them to have the mutation.

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The number of cubs doesn't influence the chance of one specific cub, they all have the same odds. If there are more cubs, that's more rolls (because there are more cubs) that could possibly be a tigon.

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You probably already know this (or don't care to know it) but a quick way of calculating chances with multiple "win" conditions (one or two or three or four tigons) is to calculate the chance for failure (zero tigons) and then take 1-chance for failure.

So chance for tigons = 1 - chance for no tigons
Chance for no tigons is easy to calculate: 0,9^n, where n is # of cubs.
So chance for tigons = 1 - 0,9^n

Quick and simple. Using n=3 gives the same chances as stated above.

What I find is interesting is the fact that if bred only on "natural" heats the probability to get a follow-up tigon is less than one. So tigon-lineages are pretty much doomed to die out sooner or later unless barked.

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Love this, thank you!

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I'm not sure just how doomed they are to die out without barking, honestly. I was gifted a 2nd Gen 5yo tigon girl way back when from my sister Sonia, and her tigon lineage has continued fairly strongly with only ONE 7-barked heat used on her granddaughter, Arunika. No other barks have ever been used, and no additional breeding items aside from each heat being buffy balled and IBFed. I'm up to Gen 6 with little Aida and her sister, Phoenix! There have also been two others born along the way that I ended up gifting to my sisters.

So in total, I've been lucky enough to produce 8 further tigons down the line from my 2nd Gen girl, Roshani.

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