So according to the Wiki (https://www.lioden.wiki/base-genetics#rarity), the chance of a special base is fixed (4% for Special x Special, 2% for Special x Rare, etc.). And as long as you're lucky enough to roll that chance, it doesn't matter how many possible "fail" bases are in the pool - your lions can be BDCSxBDCS or BDCSxRLSS and the chance is still 4%, divided between mom's Special, dad's Special, and their combo base if they have one.

So like, let's say I want a Jellyfish cub from a Jellyfish stud. I would of course pick a Special-based lioness. As far as I understand, the particular base doesn't matter - I will always have a 2% chance to get a Jelly and 2% to get the mom's base.

Wait actually, it looks like even if the mom is Rare or Uncommon, I still have the exact same 2% chance of Jelly, just no chance of a different Special? Nice if true.

Anyway, here's where I'm confused: I keep hearing things like "choose a Black Dark Countershaded lioness to maximize your chance of a Jelly". Or even "if possible, stay within the same color group when choosing your combo factors to increase your chance of that combo".

(I'm not trying to throw shade I swear, I just don't think I'm allowed to directly quote/link the specific players, so I tried to make it vague )

Now, the only way it makes sense is if roll order is the other way round: color group rolls first, then rarity. Then, if you rolled a Special but the cub's color group doesn't match either mom's or dad's, you get a fail base instead.

If that's how it works, it makes a pretty big difference. So my question is: does anyone know which it is? Does the Special chance roll before anything else, or does it only roll after the color group is determined, and fail if mismatched?

The Wiki does explicitly state "Pairing two Specials in the same colour group or two Specials in differing colour groups both have the same 4% chance to produce a Special base", so... are people just wrong?