As it appears, the survival drop amount each day on unprotected cubs is completely random. Wouldn't it be more immersing if the season and event had an effect on how much it dropped? And perhaps the messages you get?

At the moment, it is equally possible for your cub's survival bar to go down from 5-20%. I suggest that each event and season (wet vs. dry) have an effect on what is most likely. The events are categorized as follows:

Suggested "dangerous" events (15-18% during wet season, 18-20% during dry season):
January (Famine)
March (Poachers)
June (Floods)
August (Drought)
October (Rabies)

Suggested "peaceful" events (5-8% during wet season, 8-10% during dry season):
February (Aphrodesia) (may be neutral instead)
July (Celestial)
November (Shamans)
December (Season of gifts)

Suggested "neutral" events (10-13% during wet season, 13-15% during dry season):
April (Rabbit outbreak)
May (Championships)
September (Locust outbreak)

Every day, there would be a 50% chance of rolling from the entire range, 50% of rolling from the event/season range.

If you roll from the event range, maybe you'd even be able to receive some event-exclusive Cub Accident/Cub Death messages. Maybe your cub wandered a bit too close to the killing stone. Maybe it ran into a poacher, or a rabid animal.

Broodmothers would fully protect cubs as usual, this would just be additional flavor for those cubs who are unprotected.

If you opt out of event activity, the mortality range would just use the full range as it is now. So yes, you could take advantage by opting out of "dangerous" events, but then you wouldn't be able to participate in the rest of it!