Edit: As of writing this, a cub was born with a random briar rosette during a Day Time breeding. This proves that even though there is a 0.36% chance of breeding a random rosette at night, there is an even smaller chance of random rosettes that can still be bred during the day as well.
Based on statistics, it is still better to breed random rosettes at night and inherited rosettes during the day.

Briar rosette cub in question: https://www.lioden.com/lion.php?id=794158944152

Abstract

I bred 1,000 Newly Claimed Lionesses. Based on my data, I’ve come to the conclusion that random rosettes spawn when you breed at night.

Introduction

I always wanted to sit and try to find the source of random spawning rosettes, but I wasn’t motivated to start the project until the end of the Dorsal Fur breeding event in May. I was using my side king to mass breed crested cubs, and one day I had 2 NCLs give birth to a random rosette cub in each litter. It was a wild chance and it spurred me to create this project.

Methods

The goal was to try and breed a random rosette from two non-rosette parents and find a correlation. Before I started mass breeding, I created a list of potential factors that could influence the spawn chance, weeding out the factors I knew weren’t true. The possible factors I recorded were:

• Season (Wet or Dry)
• Time of Day (Day or Night in game)
• Number of Studdings
• Hunger and Age of Father and Mother
• Mood of Mother
• Personality of Mother
• Litter Size

Litter size was mainly so I could make up a ratio for spawn rates. The only factor that I couldn’t control was who the father was. It took 3 separate kings to complete this project; however, they were all mut-repped and kept the same genetics.

The first king “To the boy who sought freedom,” had no mutation.
The second king “Skull Keeper Kwaheri” was a Ferus.
The third king “Skull Keeper Finnick” was a Smilus.

I did not include mutation as a possible factor because all lions regardless of mutation have the chance to breed random rosettes, so it wasn’t a problem to keep mut-repping my king. You can find all three kings in my Dynasty.

My original plan was to make this a 400 NCL project, and split them into 4 separate groups: Wet Night, Wet Day, Dry Night, Dry Day. This was the only dynamic changing factor I saw that was actually being implemented into the game with combo base breeding (ex: Hoarfrost).
Once I started, I increased the NCL count from 400 to 1,000, with each main group increasing from 100 NCLs to 250. In order to see the fertility of every single NCL, I had to pay 30 SB each. Revealing fertility altogether cost 30,000 SB. All NCLs and cubs were chased off once they were born, mutated cubs were sold.

Cubs born with rosettes had their pages screenshotted, data recorded, and were chased off.

Results

In total, there were 1,658 cubs born. Only 3 cubs were born with a random rosette. Based on the data, the only comparisons that I could find with each cub was the mood of the mother, the hunger of both parents, and the time of day they were conceived: night.
The strongest piece of data in these results would have to be the Night breedings. I do not believe that mood or hunger play a role in generating random rosettes. I was mainly trying to make the variables consistent. Season does not play a factor.



I added up the total cubs for Wet/Night breedings and Dry/Night breedings and set up a rough ratio. I don’t believe this is the actual percent rate implemented in the game’s coding, but it's close.

3 / (422 + 423) * 100 ≈ 0.36%

There is roughly a 0.36% chance to spawn a random rosette when you breed at night.

Discussion

I can say with confidence that random rosettes have a miniscule chance of spawning during night time breedings. I can definitely see why people had trouble figuring out how they were made, as no one really pays attention to time except for special combo bases.
There may be a very, very low chance that you can spawn random rosettes during the day, but I don’t think this data supports that notion.

I do not believe that this data will impact gameplay on Lioden much. The only players I can see using this are players whose kings do not have rosettes and aren’t special combo base factors. I do not believe this will affect the game’s economy much, since single rosette cubs aren’t impactful in the Trading Center.

You are welcome to try and duplicate this project for yourself and see if it’s valid or not. There is always a chance that I missed a major variable, as with any project. You can find images of the spreadsheet and rosette cubs here: [RRG] Spreadsheet and Rosette Cubs

After I finished this project, I moved onto another project to test the passing rates of inherited rosettes. You can find the project here: Inherited Rosette Passing Project [IRP]