Posted by [HIATUS] ✦ Calculating The Primal Pass Rate

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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-04-27 08:08:28

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This project has been temporarily paused! Find out why on my last batch update


Hello hello! Recently I’ve kinged my first basic primal in a while, and since no one really knows the pass rates, I thought, why not try and calculate them myself? This project was partially inspired by a much older, now dead project with the same goal. Unfortunately I cannot find it to link it, but if I do come across it I definitely will!**
Now, onto the actual process.

**UPDATE: I found it!! This project was partially inspired by Toska (Alastør) Ⓜ️ (#19785)’s Primal Passing Rates project from 2017! Unfortunately they are no longer on Lioden, but please check it out if you’re interested in a very similar project that took place seven years ago!

✦ Overview
The basic idea is that every day, I will claim as many NCLs as I can and breed them. On the day that they give birth, I will take the data and put it in the spreadsheet, before chasing and claiming new NCLs. Hopefully, after a couple weeks of breeding and chasing, the odds will make themselves clear. I plan to breed at least 100 batches (could be well over 1,000 cubs!), or just until this king retires. But either way, hopefully it will be enough cubs to have a fairly accurate estimate of all the odds.

✦ Items & Necessities
As this is a project that heavily focuses on breeding, nesting material is an extremely important resource. I myself am going to try to get as many nests as possible, however donations are always greatly appreciated! Food has never been a scarce recourse for me personally, though I will always keep an eye on how the project is affecting my supply.

Anyone who donates will have first dibs on any muties that are born! This can include both primal and random muts, as well as any primal variations born as well. All muties will come free of charge, of course.

✦ Records
All the fun and interesting records can be found in the master spreadsheet! However, slightly more in-depth records for every batch can be found here and here instead.

✦ What Can I Do?
I’ve thought about this quite a bit, and although I was initially against the idea, I think that it would be great if other people shared the results of their primal breedings as well! More cubs being born means more cubs to add to the data pool, which means we’ll get that much closer to finding the actual odds! A couple rules first, though:

  • The king used MUST be a basic primal. Primal variations may mess with the data
  • Please note that only males can pass the mutation, and the data is void if only the mother is a primal
  • Similarly, the mother must not be a ferus, as that is the only primal variation that actually can pass from a female. This will also mess with the data
  • PLEASE DO NOT ONLY SHARE SUCCESSES!! This one is very important I think, as only sharing breedings where an actual primal was born and not sharing failures can cause an uneven balance and give us the wrong percentage. We want to be as accurate as possible, don’t we?
  • You do not have to be consistent with sharing your breedings! Even sharing just once or twice is helpful, since it means that there will be more cubs to use for data!
  • Do not send me your cubs! Please share using the form, I do not need the actual cubs

If you’ve read and understand the rules, please feel free to share your breedings using the form below! Any data submitted will be added in the spreadsheet under today’s batch with my own data, as creating a separate table or row for shared breedings is a bit unnecessary, at least for this project.

Total cubs:
Primals:
Felises:
Smiluses:
Fangs:

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Edited on 05/11/24 @ 20:14:55 by End. | 4x BO + 3x ROS Ebony (#224278)

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ROS Ebony (#224278)

Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-04 04:47:15
Apologies for the short hiatus, I ended up stopping claiming NCLs for a little bit, in case I needed space for the jaglion event. I didn’t though, so we’re back!!

Batch: 43
NCLs: 16
Total cubs: 26
Total female: 18
Total male: 8
Primals (f:m): 0:1
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Edited on 04/07/24 @ 04:49:47 by End. | 4x BO + 3x ROS Ebony (#224278)

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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-05 04:31:12
Batch: 44
NCLs: 16
Total cubs: 22
Total female: 14
Total male: 8
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-06 05:31:43
Batch: 45
NCLs: 7
Total cubs: 13
Total female: 8
Total male: 5
Primals (f:m): 0:1
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-07 06:00:23
Batch: 46
NCLs: 13
Total cubs: 18
Total female: 15
Total male: 3
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-08 04:28:07
Batch: 47
NCLs: 17
Total cubs: 27
Total female: 17
Total male: 10
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 1:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-09 04:44:48
Batch: 48
NCLs: 10
Total cubs: 18
Total female: 14
Total male: 4
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 1:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-10 04:14:34
Batch: 49
NCLs: 14
Total cubs: 23
Total female: 17
Total male: 6
Primals (f:m): 0:1
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-11 04:53:05
Batch: 50
NCLs: 12
Total cubs: 18
Total female: 15
Total male: 3
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-12 04:31:32
Batch: 51
NCLs: 14
Total cubs: 24
Total female: 17
Total male: 7
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 1:1
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-13 06:00:23
Batch: 52
NCLs: 14
Total cubs: 24
Total female: 16
Total male: 8
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-14 06:08:03
Batch: 53
NCLs: 12
Total cubs: 19
Total female: 13
Total male: 6
Primals (f:m): 1:0
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-15 06:18:14
Batch: 54
NCLs: 12
Total cubs: 17
Total female: 11
Total male: 6
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-16 06:27:33
Batch: 55
NCLs: 15
Total cubs: 25
Total female: 18
Total male: 7
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-17 06:21:45
Batch: 56
NCLs: 12
Total cubs: 20
Total female: 15
Total male: 5
Primals (f:m): 0:0
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 0:0



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ROS Ebony (#224278)

Sapphic
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Posted on
2024-07-18 12:10:25
Batch: 57
NCLs: 13
Total cubs: 25
Total female: 19
Total male: 6
Primals (f:m): 1:1
Felises (f:m): 0:0
Smiluses: 0
Fangs (f:m): 1:0



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