Posted by -ADDED TO THE GAME-Fix How Markings Roll

Heda Vampiric (#56702)

Prophet
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Posted on
2017-08-20 20:22:04



Hello, recently I was partaking in a breeding project that served not only to further a king project of mine, but also to prove a point to myself. After I had already spent countless amount of currency and time in this project, I found most of my effort was for not. Although it seems to not be common public knowledge, males roll their markings before females, and I think this needs to change. Below I'm going to give some reasons and possible solutions. In the comments I will gladly give answers the best I can to any questions, and I would appreciate if you included below why you do or do not support, especially for the latter.

1. Our markets tank too fast. Male's rolling first means that there is a greater chance of his markings passing, so he has a higher chance to pass markings to the infinite females that he can breed. As I'll explain below, the current system drives our markets for markings down greatly and ruins any rarity they might have had.

2. Males breed so much more than females. A female can breed once about every 20 days. 23 if you don't use an IBF because of the pregnancy time period. A male can breed until his energy runs out, and then again once it refills. This means that in a single day a stud can breed his genetics into 20+ females of good fertility.

3. No one wants clones of their studs to exist, or at least, most people don't. You work hard for your stud to exist. What is the point of breeding so hard for him if he can just pass all his markings to any female with little to no issue (I know there are marking pass rates or something, but most markings pass quicker than an STD). Most people, like displayed [here], just kill said clones. It's discouraging for other people to profit off your hard work.

To me, honestly, it doesn't make sense that markings rolled like this to begin with.

My suggestion is to change it so:

A. (Suggestion from Locust) For them to make it 50/50 chance for mother & father (mention [Here]).

B. Females roll their markings first.

Either would put more worth back into our females, put more worth into selective breeding [IE: This female to this stud instead of 50 NCLs to a king, which floods the market and tanks it], and put more worth back into the marking market.


So far the most popular fix is "make it 50/50".



[Project Thread] + [Roll Confirmation]


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This suggestion has 331 supports and 16 NO supports.



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Edited on 10/12/17 @ 18:53:48 by Heda RedBox (#56702)

Posted on
2017-12-15 12:44:06
Pass rates are not at all based on percentages, but I did up everything to 100% as asked.

I ran through the script again for 1300 cubs.

6585 markings passed
3243 cream markings (~49.3%)
3342 black markings (~50.7%)

Google Sheet



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Heda Vampiric (#56702)

Prophet
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Posted on
2017-12-15 12:46:46

Thank you. I know they do not, but it sets me more at ease.

May I again inquire what you are using to test them? I wonder on the basis of 'scry cubs' vs. what actually happens. You can scry the most beautiful cubs but never get such a thing. Are you doing all of this with something similar to the scry stone or are you actually running the breedings?




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Posted on
2017-12-15 12:48:27
The Scrying Stone and the actual breeding function use the exact same script, with cubs being produced just "turned off" for Scrying.

For the 1300 cubs I ripped out the part of the script that handles marking passing and ran it through a loop 1300 times (well, 13 times for 100 iterations of the loop).



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Heda Vampiric (#56702)

Prophet
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Posted on
2017-12-15 12:50:07

"ran it through a loop 1300 times (well, 13 times for 100 iterations of the loop)." Explain? I'm not much on coding.




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Posted on
2017-12-15 12:53:07
The script itself still ran 1300 times, as if it was producing information for 1300 cubs. However due to page memory load restrictions, I had to cap each click at 100 cubs.

So basically I had a button which would produce 100 cubs' data from the 2 lions I used. I clicked it 13 times and each time copied the 100 cubs' data into the spreadsheet.



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Heda Vampiric (#56702)

Prophet
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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:04:31

Ah. Understood.
Well, I can't exactly argue the data given, especially with more cubs being ran; however, I still do not fully believe that they are truly 50/50. I just can't (your data doesn't even stay 50/50. Small scale it gave lead to the females, large scale it gave lead to males). I feel like there is something more that is causing the failures the players seem to get (and in the same breath, something that is causing all these kings to produce "copies") but I cannot put a name or understanding to it so I can't very well stand by it.




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Bezthiel 🍉 (#81210)

Lone Wanderer
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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:10:02
Hey! A thought:

Would it happen to matter that, for the most part, people working on marking projects are only looking at one or two markings at a time? You seem to be counting total of passed black or cream markings, and in my rolls specifically, I'm only looking at slot 1. I'm disregarding other marks that pass, trying to keep it as close to breeding for a mark out of a female as possible



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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:10:24
All I can tell you is what's in the coding.

I used the same script to produce the 1300 results that is used in both the breeding script and scrying stone.

With chance-based systems (which is what this is, each marking has the same chance of passing) you will never, ever get an exact 50/50 unless you have an extremely large sample size (well over 1million - even then it would be uneven at a decimal level, e.g. 50.00123%).



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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:11:40
@Bezthiel - it doesn't matter, all marking slots are handled the same way.



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Myr (#188)


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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:11:46
So, technical stuff aside, the odds of parents' markings passing should in fact be 50/50 after all, or as near as makes no difference, regardless of which rolls first? That is, *if* a marking passes at all - i.e. taking out the chance of an empty slot.

I was late to this whole thread and I don’t breed nearly as many cubs as most people probably do anyway, so my own data is far too small to tell me anything reliable. I'm just trying to make sure I understand correctly and have the right info so I can get the best out of future breeding plans :)



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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:13:09
There is always a chance of an empty slot, but if it's not an empty slot it should be 50/50 on whether it's the male or female marking that is passed.



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Heda Vampiric (#56702)

Prophet
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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:13:21

Could you explain to me how it chooses the markings? Say both parents have a marking in slot 1. How does it choose if parent A or parent B gets the slot. Does it do a separate roll (0-100) for each and the higher roll gets the slot? Or something else?




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Myr (#188)


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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:15:53
Thanks Abbey (or whichever admin lol, this anon mod thing is taking some getting used to), the info is much appreciated



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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:19:16
"Does it do a separate roll (0-100) for each and the higher roll gets the slot?"

It's basically a coin toss. If both parents have a different marking in the same slot, there is a random roll of 1-2 (i.e. the coin). If the roll says 1, Parent 1's marking is picked, if the roll says 2 Parent 2's marking is picked.

If both parents have a marking that is the same in the same slot (e.g. they both have Cream Front in Slot 1) then there's a 75% for it to pass.



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Heda Vampiric (#56702)

Prophet
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Posted on
2017-12-15 13:20:07

What is the chance to pass if they have separate markings though?




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