Posted by Figuring out the rosette / how to triple your odds

Zaba (#296262)

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Posted on
2024-03-13 12:15:31
***all information in this thread is due to change, i am testing thousands of cubs every day and so unexpected results do happen.


FINDINGS SO FAR:




You have a 1/300 chance to breed ANY random rosette (except shaded, soft, bushveld, or briar)
But if your king has a certain marking, you get a SECOND 1/300 roll for whatever shape that marking is associated with

so essentially, there's a 1/2 chance the random rosette a king pops out is related to no factors whatsoever. But the other half is dictated by some trait. this is evident in every single test, half the rosettes make no sense but the other half follows a strict pattern. That might be what's been to elusive about them, throwing off so many people.


things that give you a second roll:
feline markings(for heavy and inverted heavy)
Mane markings(for shaded)
Unders markings (for soft)

things that REDUCE your chance:
Margay markings (cut your chances somewhere between 1/2 or 1/3)
Margay will override your total boosts to 0.2-0.1% no matter what markings your king has.
---

Short: Even if you do meet the criteria to spawn a certain rosette type, there's a 50% chance the rosette spawned will be unrelated. All inverted rosettes, the original rosette shape, and heavy rosettes can be spawned without any criteria. Example: Your king has a mane marking- half his RR cubs will be shaded rosettes and the other half could be inverted.

Inverted rosettes are completely random- including their shape. You don't have to meet the criteria for a shaded rosette to spawn an inverted shaded rosette.
It is possible to control the color of a RR but it isn't guaranteed. If the feline/mane/unders marking is dark, it will spawn more dark rosettes. If the feline/mane/unders is gold, it will spawn more gold rosettes.

If the parent has a criteria marking, like Lilac Waves, on an unlocked slot like 11, it can still pass a shaded rosette!


Combining all criteria traits will enable you to produce all rosette types with a 0.9% spawn rate.(Feline carries the 0.9% spawn rate, you can combine it with the other shapes to boost your odds)

---
The criteria


Criteria Shaded, Soft, Bushveld, Briar

No Criteria Rosette, All Inverted, Heavy, Most Colors


--

Shaded Requires one parent to have a mane marking

Soft Requires one parent to have a marking with "under" in the name. Includes Lace and Siamese so far.

Bushveld Requires one parent to have a green base, excludes Senegal and Bushveld Shaded

Briar Requires one parent to have a 'white' marking, includes vitiligo. Having one parent with a 'pink' marking may also produce one, though it is more rare,

Heavy Boosted by Feline markings, but can occur randomly

Heavy and heavy inverted can be boosted, but they can show up in any breeding
Shaded MUST have a mane marking
Soft MUST have an unders marking (includes lace)
Bushveld MUST have a green-based parent (Excludes Senegal, excludes shaded bushveld)
Mottled is inherited only of course
Briar MUST have a parent with a white marking or a pink marking. This includes inherently white markings like the BO vitiligos.

Roll order: Random rosettes are the first markings to roll, even able to spawn over gnawrocked markings. If markings had a roll order like mutations did, they would be the hybrid roll. Using ochre powders and leopard tails at the same time is completely safe because of it,
You can only spawn 1 random rosette per cub

Disproved theories:


"Cat-like" markings do not increase your odds. In fact, some lower your odds
Base does not contribute to the rosette's color (excluding bushveld)
Your king doesn't require certain markings to spawn a random rosette in general. A completely markingless pairing can still produce one
Having multiple criteria markings does not increase your odds even more. Lioden only runs a single "true/false" check on whether your king has it or not.
Day vs Night breeding does not impact your chances

Unconfirmed trends



If its possible to dictate the slot of a RR via a marking
If the Unders requirement includes ALL underside related markings or only a select group (it is known that lace can produce soft despite not having unders in the name)


Random Rosette Bugs Found


- Briar/Bushveld shaded rosettes can appear without their criteria being met (likely a bug with criteria transferring to the new shape)
- Senegal is not considered a green-base yet, so it can't spawn Bushveld

Markings that do not affect RRs


- Most listed markings have only been tested once, so some may be added or removed if a second test occurs.
- Lace, mottled vents, siamese, feline unders,

Test 1 - control


 

Test 2 - feline boost


 

Test 3 - Lace boost


  

Test 4 - Onyx boost


 

Test 5 - Unders boost


 

Test 6 - multiple felines


 

Test 7 - Combining Onyx and Feline


 


Test 8 - Testing Unders again


 

Test 9 - Testing Shaded


 

Test 10 - All three



 


Trouble-shooting



Help! I produced a rosette that didn't follow the patterns in the post!

- Please take time to read it again, since there are A LOT of ifs, ands, and buts. Please consider the fact that testing is still underway, we have established a ton of new info but not everything.

Common issues: I produced a shaded rosette without a mane marking parent?
Note: Briar shaded and Bushveld shaded follow different patterns than normal, your rosette is likely one of those colors.

Please do not submit records of rosette cubs, the chance of either an altered parent or tampered rosette are too high for us to use them. We want to keep testing as close to the verifable game mechanics as possible.



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Edited on 18/08/24 @ 09:57:24 by Zaba (#296262)

BravoButts (#455960)

Deathlord of the Jungle
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Posted on
2024-03-23 21:15:10
Sounds awesome!



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Iri (Dae/Daem) (#295115)

Astral
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Posted on
2024-03-26 17:10:37
Test 17
A good question that has been asked is how inheritability plays into the chances of random rosettes. Thats what this test tackles, and man the results are interesting.
Dad has one mark, Mom has none.

Dad: https://www.lioden.com/lion.php?id=521295120928 (Onyx Rosette in Slot 10)
Mom: https://www.lioden.com/lion.php?id=794156444103 (no marks)

Scrys: 900
RRs: 18
RR 1: Fiery Rosette - Slot 13
RR 2: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 3: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 4: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 5: Inverted Heavy Rosette Bone - Slot 8
RR 6: Fiery Inverted Shaded Rosette - Slot 13
RR 7: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 8: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 9: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 10: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 11: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 12: Silky Inverted Shaded - Slot 9
RR 13: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 14: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 15: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 16: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 17: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)
RR 18: Onyx Rosette - Slot 10 (passed)

Conclusion: Well, we can definitely say that passing rates are higher than random rates, however how much higher is the question. Considering I got double (plus two) the rosettes we generally get from the tests, all but four of which being passed, we can probably say that its around double the chance for it to pass than for a random rosette to pop up. Plus, considering no random rosettes popped up in slot 10, the slot the dad's rosette was in, I believe that the inheritable rosettes have a higher priority than random, however I want to do another test for just that before I come to a concrete conclusion on it.



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Zaba (#296262)

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Posted on
2024-03-26 20:21:00
I apologize for the lack of testing updates on my part. But everything is back into action now,

Testing if the soft criteria is for all markings around the underbelly or just markings with 'unders' in the name. A lace marking produced a soft rosette which raised some concerns, so I chose to test a different underside-related marking without unders in the name.
Dad has no markings, mom has one marking.

dad: 167933
mom: 794170469676 (WMV slot 1)
scrys: 900
RRs: 3
RR 1: silky inverted shaded rosette in slot 8
RR 2: cream inverted shaded rosette in slot 9
RR 3: gold inverted shaded rosette in slot 5

Conclusion: Not enough data to determine anything on briar nor soft rosettes in relation to white mottled vents. However, it can be reasonably assumed that mottled vents persuades random rosettes to be inverted shaded. MV does not increase pass rate in any way.



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Iri (Dae/Daem) (#295115)

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Posted on
2024-03-27 21:15:20
More test results!

Since the previous "Bushveld vs Briar" test was contaminated (unknowingly), i decided to redo it. The results are quite interesting.
Dad has green base and no marks, Mom has one mark.

Dad: https://www.lioden.com/lion.php?mid=314382 (Green base, no marks)
Mom: https://www.lioden.com/lion.php?id=382032920221 (Vitiligo 1 in Slot 9)

Scrys: 900
RRs: 10
RR 1: Gold Inverted Shaded Rosette - Slot 2
RR 2: Bushveld Heavy Rosette - Slot 10
RR 3: Bushveld Soft Rosette - Slot 8
RR 4: Cream Inverted Shaded Rosette - Slot 12
RR 5: Inverted Soft Rosette Silky - Slot 16
RR 6: Bushveld Heavy Rosette - Slot 12
RR 7: Saffron Inverted Shaded Rosette - Slot 5
RR 8: Seal Heavy Rosette - Slot 16
RR 9: Cream Inverted Shaded Rosette - Slot 4
RR 10: Briar Rosette - Slot 8


Conclusion: Bushveld definitely has priority over briar, as bushveld appeared 3 times, and briar only once right before the test ended. So if you have a king with a green base, but youre trying to have a briar appear, maybe consider a base change or a new stud.
I believe this test puts a nice little bow on this topic, which means we can focus on other topics more heavily (inherited rosettes with a boost from that rosette's appearance requirements coming soon ;D)



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Iri (Dae/Daem) (#295115)

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Posted on
2024-03-29 19:46:45
Bravo made a good comment, how does having a rosette's requirement influence an inheritable rosette. For this, I used a Seal Shaded Rosette king and a lady with low flow. The conclusion will be comparing this test to my previous inheritability test to see just how much it can affect the pass rate.
Dad has one mark, Mom has one mark.

Dad: https://www.lioden.com/lion.php?mid=416403 (Seal Shaded Rosette in slot 8)
Mom: https://www.lioden.com/lion.php?id=794181262271 (Noctis Low Flow in Slot 1)

Scrys: 900
RRs: 16
RR 1: Brown Rosette - Slot 7
RR 2: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 3: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 4: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 5: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 6: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 7: Inverted Heavy Rosette Fiery - Slot 3
RR 8: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 9: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 10: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 11: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 12: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 13: Gold Rosette - Slot 17
RR 14: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 15: Seal Shaded Rosette - Slot 8 (passed)
RR 16: Noctis Rosette - Slot 2

Conclusion: Compared to the last inheritability test, there were two less rosettes total. More than half were rosettes in the last time, and in this one around 1/3 were rosettes. Therefore, you have about the same amount of chance of rosettes passing with its requirement as without.



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Iri (Dae/Daem) (#295115)

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Posted on
2024-04-03 13:17:43
Previous tests have shown that margay can have some pretty negative affects on our rosette tests, so thats what I tested this time. If using a lion with a margay marking, and a lion with a feline marking (which boosts heavy showing up), what rosettes will pop up?
Dad has one mark, Mom has one mark.

Dad: https://www.lioden.com/lion.php?id=794201864314 (Dawn Margay in Slot 7)
Mom: https://www.lioden.com/lion.php?id=794132364029 (Feline 6 Elysian in Slot 10)

Scrys: 900
RRs: 2
RR 1: Inverted Soft Rosette White - Slot 12
RR 2: Inverted Soft Rosette Bone - Slot 7

Conclusion: Margay seems to have a pretty negative affect on rosette chances. Theres only two rosettes, and theyre both inverted soft. This means that your lions will have a much harder time producing rosettes if they have a margay marking (which sucks as a margay enjoyer). More testing will have to be done on all marking shapes since we've proven a margay basically destroys your chances, and that a lace can produce a soft.



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Edited on 03/04/24 @ 17:01:56 by Iri (Dae/Daem) (#295115)

[ heartbroken ] [ G3
] (#209190)

Graceful
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Posted on
2024-04-03 16:59:55
Oh, you're kidding- my favorite marking shape in the game is a rosette chance nerf. That... really sucks. Wow.



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Iri (Dae/Daem) (#295115)

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Posted on
2024-04-03 17:01:04
i felt ya there heartbroken. altho now i bet your name really suits you (i swear im funny)



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Zaba (#296262)

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Posted on
2024-04-06 09:34:15
Testing color surplus, to see if a paring with a dominant marking color will produce rosettes of the same color. This test is volatile due to the amount of untested markings.
Dad and mom have +10 noctis markings. There are NO mane, unders, margay, or feline markings between them.

dad: 794193116580
mom: 794188479987
scrys: 900
RRs: 4
RR 1: Inverted Heavy Rosette Cream in slot 10 - 5m total
RR 2: Inverted Rosette Cream in slot 12 - 5m total
RR 3: Inverted Shaded Rosette Bone in slot 3 - 4m total
RR 3: Inverted Shaded Rosette Gold in slot 5 - 6m tota

conclusion: surplus did not produce noctis rosettes, but it did produce an usually high amount of rosettes which are all inverted. There may be a marking on one of the parents that increases the chance of inverted.
As of now, this test doesn't answer anything about controlling rosette color



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Zaba (#296262)

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Posted on
2024-04-18 19:18:59
Sorry about the break between updates, I've ran three tests in the mean time so it won't be for nothing.
I'd also like to announce that I got my epic science certification! Basically I can do DNA things and create GMOs in a lab without dooming the planet. Either way, I am now a man of science conducting lioden science (prestige!)

1. Testing rogue, as a part of testing the most popular markings in the game
dad: 415427 (no marks)
mom: 794196652179 (Lilac rogue slot 7)
scrys: 900
RRs: 1
RR 1: Inverted soft rosette bone in slot 20
Conclusion: Rogue may lower the chance of random rosettes like Margay does. To confirm it, we will need to complete a few more tests.
----
2. Testing siamese, since it is a popular marking and common in the "cat marking" theories
dad: 794215308276 (Seal siamese in slot 2)
mom: 794144952116 (no marks)
scrys: 900
RRs:4
RR 1: inverted rosette white in slot 20
RR 2: dark brown rosette in slot 5
RR 3: Seal soft rosette in slot 4
RR 4: White inverted shaded rosette in slot
Conclusion: Siamese counts as an 'unders' marking! Usually there's 5 rosettes rolled from an unders, but there's always a chance of the odds being beaten. Later, we will keep testing more markings to see which ones exactly count as unders, since it isn't limited to the keyword(as established by lace) but the general appearence.
---
3. It's been a long time since we have tested everything at once, and we've uncovered much more since then. This test will be using all of the factors we know of, including Margay. (to hopefully see if it's effect can be nulled)
This combo can produce: bushveld, briar, shaded, soft, heavy. everything.

dad: 231900 (Green base, unders, feline)
mom: 794216426847 (white, mane-marking, margay)
scrys:900
RRs: 5
RR 1: Bushveld soft rosette in slot 17
RR 2: Inverted soft rosette bone in slot 5
RR 2: Bushveld heavy rosette in slot 6
RR 4: Bushveld rosette in slot 18
RR 5: Bushveld soft rosette in slot 5

Results: instances of complete randoms went way down, the half-and-half split is absent. The rate should have been 0.9 but it was 0.5. Margay was documented to lower the chance by 0.2-0.3%, and the test does confirm that. The test backs-up that bushveld rosettes take priority over all other colors including briar. Bushveld shaded is absent because it follows a different pattern.
what's not conclusive:
-if the bushveld just ignores the margay because of the strange color priority
-if margay only lowers the instance of complete random rosettes (meaning criteria rosettes are unaffected, but inverteds/etc will be)
-which marking or dominant color triggered so many bushvelds (suspected to be noctis)



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sQld (#439121)

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Posted on
2024-04-20 11:00:08
oh that's some amazing research!

I wonder if the factor markings are allowed to be in slots 11-20, and if so, can they be hidden?



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Iri (Dae/Daem) (#295115)

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Posted on
2024-04-20 11:09:53
Thats an interesting idea sQld, we'll have to add it to the list of tests ^-^



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Zaba (#296262)

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Posted on
2024-05-13 11:11:56
update: It's been nearly a month with no tests, and I am so sorry about the lack of good news. As you all may know, each scry test has a hefty price to it, and it's hard to get the money sometimes. Testing will pick back up soon. Just know that we haven't abandoned you, the project is still in progress.

Upcoming tests:
There's been some doubt to what can spawn briars, so pink markings are going to be double-checked
Testing more random popular markings for boosts and nerfs
Confirming if rogue has a nerf with a second test
Testing if Noctis/Onyx markings boost the rate of Bushveld rosettes (when the criteria is met)

- this is not a call for donations, please don't send us anything. We only ask for your patience.



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StackCats (#255031)

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Posted on
2024-06-12 08:03:30
Take your time! also understand saving up money for the Jaglion release!



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🐉 Avalin (#428669)

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Posted on
2024-06-12 12:36:38
This is fascinating, I would have never thought that margay and possibly rogue might reduce the chances like that. Would having two reducers on a lion affect the chances even more do you think?



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Edited on 12/06/24 @ 12:42:47 by 🐉 Avalin (#428669)







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